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Brazil, Russia, India, China - The BRIC Nations

Economic Giants by 2050 ? ...
R's Roar Rapidly

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Reals, Roubles, Rupees, Renminbi.


Brazil, Russia, India, China.

The four countries with their respective currencies - Brazilian Reals, Russian Roubles, Indian Rupees, Chinese Renminbi are forecasted to be global powerhouses in the future.

Goldman Sachs in a Research Report (Global Economics Paper No: 99 ) titled "Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050" (PDF File - Size 580 KB) has predicted that Brazil, Russia, India, China would become a much larger force in the global economy by 2050.

These BRIC nations as they are called, would be the largest economies besides the US and Japan by 2050. So who cares for 2050 ?



Most of us would be dead by then.

Well, the issue is not what happens by 2050.

The interesting issue is what happens on the way to 2050.

The above report has incidentally caused real ripples and rumbles in this part of the world.

It predicts that one-third of the growth of the respective BRIC countries would be caused by an appreciation of their currencies by 300 % by 2050 (or three times ) or by an average of 2.5 % per year.

So what ?

As already mentioned on this site in other articles, Exchange Rates are a Key Factor for Current and Future Offshoring.

If what the above report says turns out to be true (and there have been some serious head scratching coffee sessions due to the above), then atleast two things are fundamentally clear :

First , The Center of Gravity of the Global Economy is Shifting to Asia with two of the world's largest economies there.

In 2050, China would be the largest economy followed by the US and India.

Second , the Indian Rupee will appreciate against the Dollar steadily (making Offshoring and Offsourcing probably less and less attractive in the long run).

(There is another Predictive Report which has also arrived at a similar conclusion stating that the US $ would equal to Rs 20 by the year 2050 down from the current Rs 44)

If the Indian Rupee continues to appreciate against the US Dollar all the way from the current 1 USD = 44 Rupees all the way upto 1 USD = 20 Rupees over the next 3 decades, then it would surely have serious strategic implications for the IT Services industry here whose foundation depends on the US Dollar - Indian Rupee Differential for it's survival.

Remember the kindergarten story of the three little pigs ?



From a house of Straw.

To the house of Wood..

And a house of Bricks...

If Fear is the Key, then it sometimes does open the Door of Opportunity.

Even in the House of Bricks, sorry BRIC's.

If Knowledge is really the Foundation of the Digital Economy, we desperately need it for our House of Bricks.

Yes. Furry Slippers would also help.


Gray Arrow Email Us : Can we help in your Offshoring
Strategies ?

Article earlier published as a Weblog with the same title on an External Website.





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Updated on 4th March 2009
Posted on 12th February 2005

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